000
WTPZ41 KNHC 101501
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008
 
TWO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES PLACE THE CENTER OF ODILE JUST INSIDE
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE CYCLONE IS
SHOWING GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE.  DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED
FROM 6 HOURS AGO.  A QUIKSCAT PASS JUST IN SHOWS CORRECT AMBIGUITIES
OF 40-45 KT...WITH PERHAPS ONE VALID VECTOR OF 45-50 KT.  BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO...AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO.  EXCEPT FOR THE
UKMET...WHICH LOSES THE VORTEX ALMOST IMMEDIATELY...MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT WEAKENS THE
SYSTEM...WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A TURN OF THE SHALLOWER VORTEX TO THE
WEST.  THE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WESTWARD EXTENTION OF THE RIDGE
AFTER HURRICANE NORBERT CROSSES BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT WOULD FAVOR A
TURN TO THE WEST AFTER 2-3 DAYS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE BAM
MODELS DO NOT SHOW THIS WESTWARD TURN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AFTER THAT.  HOWEVER...IT IS STILL NEAR THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...SO SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AN INCREASE IN THE
SHEAR IS EXPECT TO INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.

ONLY A VERY SMALL DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT WOULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONSHORE...AND THUS A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 14.4N  97.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 15.0N  98.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 15.9N 100.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 16.6N 101.9W    60 KT
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 17.1N 103.3W    65 KT
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 18.0N 105.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 18.5N 107.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     15/1200Z 19.0N 109.5W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN