000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100833 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008 A LARGE BURST OF VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO VALUES. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/08. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO...AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO. MOST OF THE MODELS WEAKEN ODILE DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE IT COMPLETELY WITHIN 48 HOURS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE EXCESSIVE SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...AND AFTERWARD FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE GFS-BASED BAMM AND BAMD MODELS. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS AND OVER WARM SSTS OF 29C OR HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT HURRICANE NORBERT HAS LEFT A TRAIL OF COLD UPWELLED WATER BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14N AND 16N LATITUDE TO THE WEST OF 100W LONGITUDE. IF ODILE REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THAT COOLER WATER...BUT FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO NOT INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO...THEN THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS ...AND THEN CLOSER TO THE SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 14.2N 96.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 14.8N 97.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 15.6N 99.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 16.4N 101.3W 60 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 17.3N 103.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z 18.6N 105.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 14/0600Z 19.7N 107.4W 60 KT 120HR VT 15/0600Z 20.5N 109.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART