000
WTPZ41 KNHC 100258
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
800 PM PDT THU OCT 09 2008
 
SSM/IS MICROWAVE IMAGERY NEAR 00Z SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF ODILE
WAS PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. 
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT
THE STORM IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT 15 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHILE INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CIRRUS
OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT...BUT GIVEN THE
CURRENT ORGANIZATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/10...WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION.  ODILE IS CURRENTLY
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO STEER THE STORM GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 72 HR OR SO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SPREAD IN
BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION...WITH THE GFS MARCHING THE SYSTEM ONTO
THE MEXICAN COAST...THE HWRF KEEPING IT FARTHER OFFSHORE...AND THE
UKMET SHOWING A SLOW MOTION DUE TO ODILE SHEARING APART.  AFTER 72
HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH COULD CAUSE ODILE TO TURN
WESTWARD IF IT MAINTAINS ANY VERTICAL INTEGRITY...AS SUGGESTED BY
THE BAM MODELS...THE HWRF...THE NOGAPS...AND THE ECMWF.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT CLOSER TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO...THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HR...THEN
SHOWS A LITTLE LESS NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THEREAFTER.  OVERALL THE NEW TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

ODILE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE
NOT AS BULLISH ON THE SHEAR AS THE GFS/ECMWF WERE LAST NIGHT.  THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY DOES NOT CALL FOR A LOT OF
STRENGTHENING...WITH ONLY THE HWRF FORECASTING ODILE TO BECOME A
HURRICANE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS
STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH ODILE PEAKING JUST
UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  INTERACTION WITH LAND COULD CAUSE
ODILE TO BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE STORM EDGES
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
 
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST OF MEXICO TO
REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 13.8N  96.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 14.3N  97.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 15.1N  99.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 16.0N 100.9W    60 KT
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 16.8N 102.6W    60 KT
 72HR VT     13/0000Z 18.5N 105.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     14/0000Z 19.5N 107.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     15/0000Z 20.5N 109.0W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN