000
WTPZ41 KNHC 252041
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008
200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2008
 
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...
HOWEVER SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT IS VERY
NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
TOWN OF ROSALIA.  AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 999.5 MB WAS RECEIVED A FEW HOURS AGO FROM A STATION NEAR BURRO
COVE...JUST SOUTH OF MULEGE.  THIS WAS THE BASIS FOR THE SLIGHTLY
LOWER MINIMUM PRESSURE ON THE EARLIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.  THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS DEGRADED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM.  HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE REMAINS 35 KT.

JULIO CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 340/10 KT.  THE
FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED AS JULIO IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL HEADING DURING THE 2-3 DAYS WITH
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS TO NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL PREDICT A SEPARATION OF
THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH THE
MID-LEVEL CENTER TURNING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO...WHILE
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO
AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

EVEN THOUGH JULIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SOON...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS JULIO BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

MOISTURE FROM JULIO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
RAINFALL OVER THAT REGION.
   
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 27.5N 112.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 28.6N 112.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 29.5N 113.3W    25 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 29.9N 113.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 30.2N 113.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN