000 WTPZ41 KNHC 250831 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008 200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2008 IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF JULIO. HOWEVER... SATELLITE IMAGERY...MEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM GUSAVE...AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SUGGEST THE CENTER REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING STRONG CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER... ALTHOUGH THE GUSAVE RADAR DEPICTION OF THE CENTER IS RATHER POOR. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/13. JULIO IS WEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST CENTRAL MEXICO. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF JULIO...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF JULIO OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE RESULT OF THIS EVOLUTION WILL BE TO LEAVE JULIO IN AN AREA OF COLLAPSED STEERING CURRENTS BY 48-72 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36 HR...THEN NOT SURPRISINGLY STARTS TO DIVERGE. BASED ON THE GUIDANCE....THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR JULIO TO GRADUALLY DECELERATE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN CALLING FOR IT TO STALL AFTER 48 HR. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF JULIO OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 12-18 HR. BASED ON THIS AND SOME CONTINUING LAND INTERACTION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR JULIO TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HR. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTS THE REMNANTS TO SURVIVE MUCH LONGER THAN 72 HR...AND THUS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY 96 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 25.8N 111.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 27.0N 112.3W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 26/0600Z 28.4N 112.9W 30 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 26/1800Z 29.2N 113.2W 25 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 29.9N 113.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/0600Z 30.0N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN