000
WTPZ41 KNHC 250232
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2008
 
IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF JULIO...BUT AN ASCAT
PASS AROUND 18Z...OBSERVATIONS FROM LA PAZ...AND A HEALTHY DOSE OF
CONTINUITY PLACE THE CENTER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED THAT JULIO HAD
WEAKENENED A BIT AND THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/11.  JULIO IS MOVING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. 
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN THIS
PATTERN...THE MOST LIKELY TRACK IS A PATH MORE OR LESS UP THE
PENINSULA WITH A GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT THAT COULD PLACE THE
CENTER IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE THE STEERING CURRENTS
COLLAPSE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND NEAR THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

COLD WATER LIES AHEAD IF THE CENTER STAYS OFF THE WEST COAST...AND
THE TERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ISN'T GOING TO DO JULIO ANY
FAVORS EITHER.  THUS WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND JULIO MAY WELL
BECOME A DEPRESSION FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE.  EVEN IF THE CENTER
EMERGES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF...BY THEN THE GLOBAL
MODELS PLACE THE CYCLONE UNDER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT ANY REDEVELOPMENT. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 24.4N 111.1W    40 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 25.7N 111.9W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 27.4N 112.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 28.8N 113.0W    25 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 29.5N 113.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 30.0N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN