000 WTPZ41 KNHC 241453 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2008 EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF JULIO IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY AN AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS AROUND 1215 UTC. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 45 AND 55 KT RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...THE TAFB FIX POSITION WAS A LITTLE FARTHER INTO THE CONVECTION...WHICH YIELDS AN ESTIMATE THAT IS LIKELY ON THE HIGH SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT...BASED ON THE SAB CLASSIFICATION AND A RECENTLY-RECEIVED QUIKSCAT PASS. THE QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO CONFIRMS OUR EARLIER WIND RADII ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/11. JULIO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. JULIO HAS ONLY A LITTLE TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR PRIOR TO REACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA IS MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. IF THE CIRCULATION REMAINS INLAND OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IT COULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. MOISTURE FROM JULIO COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN A FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 22.4N 110.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 23.7N 110.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 25.3N 111.8W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 26/0000Z 26.7N 112.5W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 26/1200Z 27.8N 113.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 27/1200Z 29.1N 113.6W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH