000
WTPZ41 KNHC 190844
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008
 
WHAT LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION EXISTED OVER THE CYCLONE 6 HOURS AGO HAS
SINCE DISSIPATED...AND ELIDA HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN REDUCED TO A
SKELETON OF ITS FORMER SELF.  WITH THE CYCLONE NOW OVER 23 DEGREE
CELSIUS WATER...REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AND ELIDA APPEARS WELL
ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.  WHILE SOME OF
THE AVAILABLE MODELS SHOW DISSIPATION SOONER...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN 4 DAYS. 

ELIDA IS NOW MOVING DUE WEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
270/12. NOW A SHALLOW CYCLONE...A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 18.1N 131.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 17.9N 132.9W    25 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 17.7N 135.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 17.4N 137.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 17.0N 140.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME