000
WTPZ41 KNHC 182129
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
 
ELIDA IS NOW A MOSTLY EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...WITH JUST A
LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION LEFT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. 
ESTIMATES OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS USING A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI
NUMBERS SPAN A WIDE RANGE...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY LEANS TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF THOSE VALUES AND IS SET TO 35 KT.  ELIDA IS OVER
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 23 CELSIUS...AND ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK THEY ARE NOT GOING TO GET MUCH WARMER ANYTIME
SOON...SO THE SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR MORE THAN HALF A DAY OR SO.

THERE SHOULD BE NO SURPRISES REGARDING THE PATH OF ELIDA.  THE
INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/13...AND THE CYCLONE AND ITS EVENTUAL
REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH.  GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 18.0N 128.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 18.0N 130.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.8N 133.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 17.7N 135.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 17.5N 137.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     21/1800Z 17.0N 143.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 149.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB