000
WTPZ41 KNHC 181450
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
 
ELIDA IS TRYING TO FIGHT OFF ITS ENCOUNTER WITH COOL SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...BUT RECENTLY HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A VERY
SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER.  A BLEND OF THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS YIELDS AN INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT...BUT THE INTENSITY TREND IS SHARPLY
DOWNWARD SINCE THE UNDERLYING WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
NOT GET ANY WARMER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS.  BY THAT
TIME...DEEP CONVECTION MIGHT BE JUST ABOUT GONE.  IT IS DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW LONG ELIDA CAN REMAIN A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND LIKE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR
THE SYSTEM TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD HAPPEN
SOONER.

THE MOTION REMAINS WESTWARD OR 270/13...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS
MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AS ELIDA
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 17.6N 127.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 17.5N 129.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.3N 131.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 17.1N 134.1W    30 KT
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 16.9N 136.6W    30 KT
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 142.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 148.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     23/1200Z 16.5N 155.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB