000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170243
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
800 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2008
 
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE EYE OF ELIDA HAS BECOME LESS
DISTINCT...AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE AS YET UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST...ELIDA IS PASSING THE 26C SST
ISOTHERM AND SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 285/11.  MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS ELIDA MOVING WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF A MID
LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS STILL
A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...AND AFTER THAT ELIDA SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD
WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MERELY
UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 17.3N 119.0W    90 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 17.7N 120.8W    85 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 18.0N 123.5W    70 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 18.2N 126.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 18.2N 128.6W    40 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N 133.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 18.0N 138.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     22/0000Z 18.0N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN