000
WTPZ41 KNHC 162026
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
200 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2008
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT ELIDA HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. CONSEQUENTLY...
T-NUMBERS INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WITH OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD TO 90 KNOTS. ELIDA IS VERY NEAR COOLER WATERS...SO THIS
COULD BE THE PEAK INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON.

ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE
HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND
SHOULD FORCE ELIDA ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 17.0N 117.8W    90 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 17.3N 119.6W    80 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 17.7N 122.1W    70 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 18.0N 125.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 18.0N 127.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 132.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     21/1800Z 18.0N 142.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA