000
WTPZ41 KNHC 161427
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
800 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2008
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  THERE IS NO EYE ON INFRARED BUT THERE IS VERY STRONG
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. A PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT.   
 
ELIDA CONTINUES SOUTH OF A STRONG AND PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH FIVE DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK
GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUE TO FORECAST ELIDA ON A WESTWARD TRACK.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 16.7N 116.8W    75 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 17.1N 118.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 17.5N 121.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 17.8N 124.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 18.0N 126.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 18.0N 131.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 18.1N 136.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     21/1200Z 18.0N 141.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA