000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160855
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
200 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2008
 
ELIDA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH AN EYE BRIEFLY
APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW EXPANDING IN ALL
QUADRANTS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE
INCREASED TO T4.5...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. WITHIN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...HOWEVER...ELIDA WILL
BE CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...SO THERE IS NOT MUCH OPPORTUNITY
FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. BY 48 HOURS...WHEN THE SSTS SHOULD BE
NEAR 24C...A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11.  ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  IF ELIDA
REMAINS A DEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT WOULD
LIKELY TAKE A TRACK A LITTLE NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 16.5N 115.5W    75 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 16.8N 117.3W    75 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 17.3N 119.8W    65 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 17.5N 122.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 17.8N 125.3W    45 KT
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 18.0N 130.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 18.0N 135.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     21/0600Z 18.0N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN