000
WTPZ41 KNHC 152041
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008
 
THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH ELIDA CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS
SYMETRIC WITH TIME AS EASTERLY SHEAR PERSISTS OVER THE STORM. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS...WHICH DECREASED TO
3.5 AND 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. ALL OF THIS EVIDENCE
POINTS TO ELIDA CONTINING ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. AS A RESULT...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 65 KT. THERE IS OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITHIN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAT ELIDA WILL GRADUALLY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE STORM MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. 
 
ELIDA SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FORECAST TO
BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME.  THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
COMPONENT TO THE STORM MOTION UNTIL THE RIDGE GETS INTO PLACE BY 24
TO 36 HOURS.  AT THAT POINT...ELIDA SHOULD TAKE AN ALMOST DUE
WESTWARD PATH.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE
THAT TAKES ELIDA ON A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST TRACK OWING TO THE
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CYCLONE.

DATA FROM A 1322 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL
34 KT AND 50 KT WIND RADII IN THE NORTHERN SEMICRICLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 16.5N 113.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 16.8N 115.1W    65 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 17.3N 117.6W    60 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 17.7N 120.2W    55 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 17.9N 123.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 18.1N 128.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 132.6W    30 KT
120HR VT     20/1800Z 17.5N 135.9W    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BANN