000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150857
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ELIDA IS EXPERIENCING 
EASTERLY SHEAR WITH ASSOCIATED COLD CLOUD TOPS AND UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS SYMMETRIC.  WHILE THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 6 HOURS AGO...SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED AT T4.5.  THEREFORE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KT.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR TO WEAKEN A LITTLE IN THE SHORT-TERM AND
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ESSENTIALLY SHOW ELIDA MAINTAINING ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER TWO DAYS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ELIDA WILL
BE ENCOUNTERING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING IN
LINE WITH THE STATISTICALLY-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. 

ELIDA CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING OR 275/10.  THE
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO PROVIDING THE STEERING.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED.  TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...TRACK MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR FORWARD SPEED AS
ELIDA BECOMES A PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS
BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AT DAYS 4 AND 5. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 16.2N 111.3W    75 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N 112.8W    70 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.8N 115.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 17.2N 117.4W    60 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 17.4N 119.9W    55 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 17.5N 124.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 17.5N 128.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 17.5N 131.5W    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME