000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142049 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 200 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2008 A RAGGED EYE MADE AN APPEARANCE IN ELIDA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY...THOUGH THE EYE REMAINED HIDDEN IN THE INFRARED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 4.5...OR ABOUT 75-80 KT. A 1215Z AMSU PASS SUGGESTED ABOUT 80 KT. THE ADT INDICATED A WEAKER SYSTEM OF 65 KT...THOUGH THIS TECHNIQUE MAY HAVE DIFFICULTIES IN THAT THE EYE WAS NOT APPARENT IN THE INFRARED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT. A 1313Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASS ALONG WITH THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDE A MORE CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE POSITION AND MOTION...THE LATTER OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT. ELIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER THAT...ELIDA SHOULD PROCEED WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE AS IT IS ADVECTED ALONG IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS...AS THE HWRF HAS A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA AND NOGAPS MAINTAINS TOO LARGE A VORTEX TOO LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL ALSO PORTRAYS A UNREALISTIC-LOOKING FUJIWARA INTERACTION WITH A SECONDARY VORTICITY LOBE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ELIDA...SO THIS MODEL TOO IS DOWNPLAYED. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION THROUGH THREE DAYS...BUT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE EARLIER FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. ELIDA MAY HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS...A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR. THE RATHER SHARP BOUNDARY IN THE INFRARED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF ELIDA MAY BE INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASED SHEAR ABOUT TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...HRWF...AND GFDL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A TOPEX/POSEIDON SATELLITE PASS AT 15Z ALLOWED FOR ADJUSTMENT...AND EXPANSION OUTWARD...OF THE 12 FOOT SEAS RADII AS ANALYZED BY TAFB. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 15.8N 109.7W 75 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 16.0N 111.1W 75 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 16.5N 113.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 17.1N 115.2W 65 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 17.3N 117.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 17.5N 122.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 17.5N 126.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 129.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN