000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141455 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 800 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2008 ELIDA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST 65 AND 77 KT... RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT AND AMSU ANALYSES ARE ALSO AT MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY. RECENT AMSU AND AMSR OVERPASSES ALSO INDICATE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE BECOMING EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KT. RECENT AMSU AND AMSR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ELIDA IS STILL SOUTH OF 16N...DESPITE AN EARLIER AMSU IMAGE...WHICH MAY HAVE HAD SOME NAVIGATIONAL PROBLEMS...THAT HAD ELIDA NORTH OF THAT LATITUDE. AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF THE TRACK IS AT 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BEING MAINTAINED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TRACK OF JUST DUE NORTH OF WESTWARD FOR THREE DAYS. AT THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...ELIDA SHOULD MOVE WEST OR JUST SOUTH OF WEST AS IT IS ADVECTED ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE HWRF AND NOGAPS...WHICH MAY HAVE TOO STRONG AND LARGE A VORTEX LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. ELIDA SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM WATERS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. DURING DAYS 2 AND 3...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING DAYS 2 AND 3...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. AFTER THAT...ELIDA WILL BE OVER COLD WATERS AND SHOULD BE RAPIDLY WEAKENING...WITH THE FORECAST RELYING UPON SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE GFDL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 15.9N 109.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 16.5N 112.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 16.9N 115.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 17.2N 117.4W 65 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 17.5N 122.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 17.0N 125.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 129.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN