000
WTPZ41 KNHC 140847
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
200 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2008
 
BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED
TO 4.0 AND A RECENT AMSU PASS INDICATES THAT AN EYE HAS FORMED
BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT MAKING ELIDA THE SECOND
HURRICANE OF THE 2008 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.  GIVEN THE PRESENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM AS SUGGESTED BY ALL OF
THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS.  IN A DAY OR SO...ELIDA WILL BEGIN
MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
WEAKENING.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE ADJUSTED TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT. 
 
ELIDA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO RESULTING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OR 285/14. THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS ELIDA'S WESTWARD MOTION. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING BUT AT A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED. IN 2-3 DAYS...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE TOWARDS THE WEST AS IT IS STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH BASED ON A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 16.2N 108.2W    65 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 16.6N 109.8W    70 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N 111.9W    65 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 17.3N 114.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 17.5N 116.4W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 17.5N 120.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 17.5N 123.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME