000
WTPZ41 KNHC 130234
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008

ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST WITH ASSOCIATED -80C CLOUD TOPS.  THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL OF A
2338Z SSMI OVERPASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN PINPOINTING THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER...JUST UNDER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CDO.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 AND
45 KT RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE CANOPY AND
A COMPROMISE OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 50 KT.  THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN HAMPERING THE
CYCLONE DURING THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS APPEARS TO BE DECREASING
NOW...WITH IMPROVING OUTFLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...CALLING FOR A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.  THIS MATCHES A
CONSENSUS OF THE SUPER ENSEMBLE...HWRF...AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...A WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS ELIDA TRAVERSES OVER COOLER WATER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/14...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AN ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO.  NO
MAJOR TRACK CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DERIVED FROM A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL
MODELS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 14.4N 101.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 15.3N 103.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 16.8N 107.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 17.2N 109.3W    65 KT
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N 112.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     17/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     18/0000Z 17.5N 118.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB