000
WTPZ41 KNHC 121451
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008
 
A TIMELY 1227 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE HELPED TO DETERMINE THE
LOCATION OF ELIDA'S CENTER THIS MORNING...WHICH IS NOW EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION.  ELIDA'S OUTFLOW REMAINS A LITTLE
RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...SUGGESTING SOME
EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
DISAGREEMENT THIS MORNING.  THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW ONLY
MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND KEEPS ELIDA BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH.  MEANWHILE...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE PREDICTS STEADY
STRENGTHENING AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY
IN 36-48 HOURS.    THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION
GUIDANCE PREDICTS A 33% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR GREATER INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
PREDICTED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14 KT.  ELIDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO.
THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR
THE GFS...WHICH SLOWS THE STORM DOWN AS THE MODEL DEVELOPS A
STRONGER CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF ELIDA.  THIS SOLUTION SEEMS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 13.2N  98.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 13.9N 100.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 14.8N 102.4W    55 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 15.6N 104.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.3N 106.8W    65 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 17.3N 110.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 18.0N 113.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN