000
WTPZ41 KNHC 120838
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF A 0316
ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO A TROPICAL STORM...WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATED SET AT
35 KT.  ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY COLD -80C CLOUD TOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG BANDING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE PERPLEXING.  BOTH
DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS SHOW LITTLE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE ELIDA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN
48 HOURS.  THE SUPER ENSEMBLE IS SORT OF A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO
SOLUTIONS...SUGGESTING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN 3 DAYS.  ACCORDINGLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...LGEM AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE AND CALLS FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITH ELIDA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.
THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE PERIOD....COOLER WATER AND
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND.  
 
THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING A BIT SLOWER NOW...300/12...WITHIN
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTHEAST.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...THE GLOBAL MODELS
REFLECT A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DISSIPATION IN 3 DAYS.  AS A
RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED ECMWF...GFDL...THE FSSE SUPER ENSEMBLE AND THE
GFS BAMM AND BAMD TRAJECTORY MODELS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 12.5N  96.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 13.3N  98.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 14.2N 100.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 15.0N 102.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 15.7N 104.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N 108.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N 112.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     17/0600Z 18.0N 115.5W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN