000
WTPZ41 KNHC 291429
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012008
800 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM ALMA...THE FIRST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC NAMED
CYCLONE.  THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CENTER AND CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...PRIMARILY ON THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE OUTFLOW IS ALREADY WELL-ESTABLISHED. BASED
ON THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT
40 KNOTS.  ALMA IS WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS
OR SO.

ALMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS...STEERED
BY A LIGHT DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...AS ALMA MOVES
NORTHWARD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A DEEP LAYER MEAN
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT. BY THEN...ALMA IS FORECAST TO BE INLAND AND WEAKENING
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS BOTH GFDL AND HWRF HURRICANE MODELS. 

ALMA OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS WHICH COULD REACH 20 INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA CAUSING DANGEROUS
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 11.5N  86.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 12.5N  87.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 14.0N  88.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     31/0000Z 15.5N  89.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS