000
WTPZ41 KNHC 290250
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012008
800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2008
 
THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY ACQUIRING ORGANIZATION TODAY. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGESTED A REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND THE
00Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T2.0...
SUGGESTING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER THIN...CONFINED
MOSTLY TO A FEW BANDS WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH ONE
SMALL BAND HAS DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE CENTER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
TWO. GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT... SLIGHTLY BELOW THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 010/3.
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
AGREES ON A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK INITIALLY...WITH A BEND TO
THE LEFT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITHIN THE GYRE AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE GULF RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE 12Z UKMET AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TAKING THE SYSTEM
INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE ORIENTATION OF
THE COASTLINE RELATIVE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...EVEN MODEST TRACK
ERRORS COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
LANDFALL.
 
WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW BUT THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CORE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.
WATERS BENEATH THE CYCLONE ARE WARM...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS
THE DEPRESSION TO STORM STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS.  NEITHER THE
GFDL...HWRF...OR LGEM MODELS SHOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD
REACH 20 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
ESPECIALLY IN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0300Z 10.2N  86.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 10.8N  86.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 12.0N  86.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 13.7N  87.4W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME