000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021439 TCDEP1 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 AFTER BRIEFLY EMERGING INTO THE BAHIA LA PAZ... THE CENTER IS MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL ON BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE EYE FEATURE ON SATELLITE HAS BECOME INDISTINCT THOUGH THERE IS STILL FAIRLY STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. DUE TO THE LONG INTERACTION WITH LAND AND THE LOSS OF AN EYE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT. HOWEVER THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THAT ESTIMATE AS FEW OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE HURRICANE'S CORE. JOHN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AT A STEADY RATE AS LONG AS IT REMAINS OVER BAJA. REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AFTER IT EMERGES FROM THE PENINSULA IN A COUPLE DAYS DUE TO THE COLDER WATERS WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... THE SMALL SYSTEM MIGHT DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT... NOW 320/8. IN GENERAL THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT... OR WEST... SINCE THE LAST MODEL CYCLE. IN FACT...THE GFDL IS NOW ONE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS AFTER BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WITH JOHN EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY WEAKENED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...RECURVATURE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY. INSTEAD JOHN SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD CLOSE TO FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EVEN THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY NOT APPROACH THAT REGION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 24.5N 110.8W 70 KT...NEAR COAST 12HR VT 03/0000Z 25.3N 111.6W 55 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 03/1200Z 26.4N 112.7W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.8W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 115.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 05/1200Z 29.5N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/1200Z 29.5N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021439 TCDEP1 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 AFTER BRIEFLY EMERGING INTO THE BAHIA LA PAZ... THE CENTER IS MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL ON BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE EYE FEATURE ON SATELLITE HAS BECOME INDISTINCT THOUGH THERE IS STILL FAIRLY STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. DUE TO THE LONG INTERACTION WITH LAND AND THE LOSS OF AN EYE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT. HOWEVER THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THAT ESTIMATE AS FEW OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE HURRICANE'S CORE. JOHN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AT A STEADY RATE AS LONG AS IT REMAINS OVER BAJA. REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AFTER IT EMERGES FROM THE PENINSULA IN A COUPLE DAYS DUE TO THE COLDER WATERS WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... THE SMALL SYSTEM MIGHT DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT... NOW 320/8. IN GENERAL THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT... OR WEST... SINCE THE LAST MODEL CYCLE. IN FACT...THE GFDL IS NOW ONE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS AFTER BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WITH JOHN EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY WEAKENED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...RECURVATURE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY. INSTEAD JOHN SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD CLOSE TO FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EVEN THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY NOT APPROACH THAT REGION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 24.5N 110.8W 70 KT...NEAR COAST 12HR VT 03/0000Z 25.3N 111.6W 55 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 03/1200Z 26.4N 112.7W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.8W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 115.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 05/1200Z 29.5N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/1200Z 29.5N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA