000 WTPZ41 KNHC 262032 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2006 EMILIA IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING UNDER THE INHIBITING INFLUENCE OF 22C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE DATA-T NUMBERS AND THE CURRENT INTENSITIES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. AS A RESULT OF COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS...EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT RAPIDLY TO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS. EMILIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 320/10. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN 72 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 25.5N 114.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 26.3N 115.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 27.2N 117.3W 30 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 27.7N 118.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 28/1800Z 28.2N 119.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN