000 WTPZ41 KNHC 230253 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO CONFIDENTLY LOCATE THE CENTER OF EMILIA THIS EVENING...BUT I BELIEVE IT TO BE LOCATED VERY NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION...A POSITION ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. TRMM AND SSMI PASSES WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS DO NOT SHOW AS MUCH STRUCTURE IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES AS THOSE FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT EMILIA HAS STRENGTHENED ANY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35-45 KT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT EMILIA WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. IN FACT...THE UKMET FORECAST 200 MB WINDS...COUPLED WITH THE 30C WATERS...WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE ALL PROJECTING EMILIA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE REGION OF FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW IS SMALL HOWEVER...SO IF EMILIA MOVES SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK ITS DEVELOPMENT COULD BE DELAYED. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 330/10. EMILIA APPEARS TO BE MAKING THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD TURN...AND I DO NOT EXPECT IT TO GET A LOT CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST THAN IT ALREADY IS. CONSEQUENTLY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...WHICH MEANS THAT STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED...STILL APPEARS TO BE THE APPROPRIATE STATEMENT AT THIS TIME. SHOULD EMILIA MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK OR DEVELOP MORE RAPIDLY THAN EXPECTED...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE WATCH AREA AS EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH THE SAME AS BEFORE...WITH THE GFS TAKING A VERY WEAK SYSTEM SHARPLY WESTWARD...AND THE UKMET TAKING EMILIA WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF THE WATCH AREA AS WELL AS BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GFDL HAS AN ODD TRACK...RESEMBLING THE GFS EARLY AND THE UKMET LATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND ON THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 17.4N 105.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 18.5N 106.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 19.7N 108.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 20.5N 109.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 21.2N 111.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 114.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 28/0000Z 26.0N 120.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN