000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300857 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 200 AM PDT TUE MAY 30 2006 DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN ABSENT FROM ALETTA FOR ABOUT EIGHT HOURS UNTIL IT RESUMED AROUND 04Z THIS MORNING. WHILE THE RECENT BURST HAS PERSISTED FOR A FEW HOURS... THE CONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT WELL ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 06Z DVORAK ESTIMATES. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE PASSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASING SHEAR THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE WEAKENING OF THIS SMALL CYCLONE SINCE YESTERDAY... AND THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAIRLY STABLE AND DRY. GIVEN HOW MUCH ALETTA HAS STRUGGLED AGAINST THESE CONDITIONS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS... AND SINCE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO ROUGHLY DOUBLE IN MAGNITUDE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... RESTRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS... A BIT FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR SEVERAL DAYS... ALTHOUGH THE LOW COULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY SOONER THAN SHOWN IN THE FORECAST. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 16.0N 102.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 15.9N 103.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 31/0600Z 15.8N 104.2W 25 KT 36HR VT 31/1800Z 15.6N 105.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 01/0600Z 15.3N 106.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 03/0600Z 15.0N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 04/0600Z 15.0N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$