000 WTPZ41 KNHC 221427 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2005 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE APPARENT CHANGE WITH THE STRUCTURE OF KENNETH OVERNIGHT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5...OR 55 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WHERE THE CENTER IS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF KENNETH AND THIS IS IMPARTING SOME NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR UNDERNEATH THE OUTFLOW LAYER. THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ALSO APPEARS TO BE RATHER DRY. UNDERNEATH THE WATER IS STILL WARM...HOWEVER...AND THESE COMPETING FACTORS ARGUE FOR RELATIVELY MODEST INTENSITY CHANGES. THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280/8 IS BASED ON CONTINUITY...AS THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES AND THE CENTER CANNOT BE SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGHLY DIVERGENT... WITH THE GFDL/GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE REFLECTING A NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT AS KENNETH INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM MAX. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN TAKING KENNETH SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH...BUT SLOWER THAN...THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 15.4N 135.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 15.5N 136.2W 50 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 15.7N 137.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 15.8N 137.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 16.0N 138.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 16.0N 140.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 16.0N 141.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 142.0W 40 KT $$