000 WTPZ41 KNHC 212037 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT... WITH THE GFS SHOWING NO FURTHER WESTWARD MOTION AND THEN A NORTHEASTWARD PATH AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CIRCULATION OF MAX. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET KEEP KENNETH MOVING WESTWARD UNDERNEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. WITH MAX LOSING DEEP CONVECTION AND FORECAST TO WEAKEN QUICKLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LEANS TOWARD THE UKMET/NOGAPS SCENARIO...ALBEIT WITH A SLOWER WESTWARD PROGRESSION. MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH ALTHOUGH LIMITED IS STILL SHOWING SOME BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT 50 KT VECTOR AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE SHIPS MODEL IS DIAGNOSING A FAIR AMOUNT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR FROM THE GFS FIELDS...ALTHOUGH ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE PRIMARY NEGATIVE INTENSIFICATION FACTOR IS THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. A SLOW DECAY IS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH WAS BASED ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 14.9N 133.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 15.3N 134.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 15.6N 135.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.8N 136.1W 35 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 16.0N 137.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 16.0N 138.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 16.0N 139.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 16.0N 140.0W 35 KT $$