000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200830 TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005 THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND A 0232Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATE FURTHER EROSION OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IMPEDES THE OUTFLOW. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ON THE DECLINE...WITH 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND DATA-T NUMBERS 55 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 75 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/3. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING WITHIN THE MID-LAYER STEERING FLOW OF A HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST. KENNETH SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE NOGAPS...GFDN...UKMET AND THE GFS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 13.6N 131.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 13.7N 131.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 14.2N 132.1W 55 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 14.7N 132.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 15.4N 133.6W 40 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 16.9N 135.3W 35 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 18.0N 138.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 18.5N 140.5W 30 KT $$