000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172101 TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DISPLAY AN IMPRESSIVE 20 NM WIDE SYMMETRIC EYE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT T-NUMBER 5.5..OR 102 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KT. SSTS ARE CURRENTLY 28.0 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN KENNETH AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM SHIPS...THE GFDL MODEL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ALL INDICATE GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SSTS COOL SLIGHTLY AND NORTHERLY SHEAR REMAINS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS WEAKENING TREND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/6. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED. ALL THE DYANAMICAL MODELS...EXCEPT THE UKMET...KEEP KENNETH SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT AND NORTH OF THE BAROTROPIC MODELS. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...KENNETH IS FORECAST TO SLOW IN FORWARD MOTION AS THE STEERING CURRENTS BECOME WEAKER. BASED ON A 15Z QUIKSCAT PASS...THE RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE 12 FOOT SEA RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST NOAA WAVE WATCH THREE GUIDANCE. FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 14.0N 127.5W 105 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 14.4N 128.3W 100 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 14.8N 129.3W 95 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 15.3N 130.2W 85 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 15.9N 131.1W 75 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 16.7N 132.3W 65 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 17.2N 133.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 17.5N 134.5W 50 KT $$