000 WTPZ41 KNHC 102044 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED AUG 10 2005 FERNANDA IS APPROACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPED RAINBANDS AROUND THE CDO AND A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED A SMALL EYE WAS FORMING WITH CONVECTION NOW BURSTING NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE JUST BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 60 KT. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW LITTLE SHEAR IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A STEADY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL IT REACHES COOLER WATERS BELOW 26.5C IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. THE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ALMOST 4 TIMES THE MEAN SO FERNANDA COULD INTENSIFY A BIT MORE THAN SUGGESTED BELOW. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE... 290/9. THE TRACK FORECAST SEEMS STRAIGHT-FORWARD AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS HAS COME INTO LINE WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK IS BASICALLY AN EXTENTION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 3 DAYS THEN NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 15.7N 119.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 16.1N 120.2W 70 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 16.8N 121.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 17.4N 123.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 17.8N 124.1W 70 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 18.3N 126.3W 60 KT 96HR VT 14/1800Z 18.3N 128.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 15/1800Z 18.3N 131.0W 45 KT $$