000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010241 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE AUG 31 2004 INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10 KT. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IS SIMILAR TO BEFORE. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA WHICH HAS BEEN PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING HOWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER CONSIDERABLY AFTER 36 HOURS WITH THE UKMET MODEL FORECASTING HOWARD ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...AND THE GFS SHOWING A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. THE REMAINING MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE INITIAL MOTION. IT IS ALSO NEAR THE CONSENSUS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW T3.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES...WITH PLUSES ON THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SUGGESTING THAT THE WIND SPEED COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE 55 KTS. BECAUSE OF THE IMPRESSIVE BURST IN CONVECTION IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE APPEARANCE OF A CDO TYPE PATTERN I AM MAKING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED 60 KTS. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS TAKEN A DRAMATIC JUMP IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. IT IS INDICATING AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BASED UPON 7 OF 7 CONDITIONS SATISFIED. THESE INCLUDE LOW SHEAR...4 KTS...SSTS OF 30 DEG C AND VERY COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. I AM GOING TO GO OUT ON A LIMB AND GO WITH THE SHIPS ON THIS...MAKING HOWARD A HURRICANE IN 6 TO 12 HOURS AND A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 15.2N 108.9W 60 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 15.9N 110.3W 75 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 17.0N 112.4W 90 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 18.2N 114.6W 95 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 19.1N 116.4W 100 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 20.5N 118.9W 90 KT 96HR VT 05/0000Z 21.6N 120.9W 80 KT 120HR VT 06/0000Z 23.0N 122.5W 65 KT $$