000 WTPZ41 KNHC 311443 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE AUG 31 2004 LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW HOWARD BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BANDING FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. THE 1200 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 3.5 FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 40 KT. HOWARD SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS FOR AT LEAST 72 HOURS...SO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS OR GFDL MODELS. INITIAL MOTION IS WNW AT 10 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC IN THAT THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A LARGE HIGH SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA. FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE HOWARD ON A WNW TRACK FOLLOWING THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. AFTERWARDS THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL WEAKENING THE RIDGE DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH ALLOWS HOWARD TO FOLLOW A NORTHERLY TRACK...ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS AND NOGAPS BUILD THE RIDGE WESTWARD AND TAKE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE OPTIONS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1500Z 14.5N 107.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 15.3N 108.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 16.3N 110.6W 60 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 17.1N 112.4W 70 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z 17.8N 114.2W 75 KT 72HR VT 03/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 04/1200Z 21.0N 118.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 05/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W 50 KT $$