000 WTPA44 PHFO 072034 TCDCP4 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 31 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 07 2025 Kiko's eye has become a bit cloud filled during the past few hours, and cloud-top temperatures around the eye have been gradually warming. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the hurricane and measured a 700-mb flight-level wind of 105 kt in the northeastern quadrant, as well as a minimum pressure up to 974 mb. Based on the aircraft data, the current intensity is set at 95 kt, which is also in line with the latest objective satellite estimates. The west-northwestward motion of 300/11 kt continues, and a slightly faster speed on that trajectory is expected at least through day 4 while Kiko remains on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. Based on this motion, Kiko is expected to pass to the north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the most reliable track models remain in good agreement on this scenario. The track guidance is again a little faster with Kiko as it passes to the north of the islands, and the NHC track forecast is a bit faster than the previous prediction starting in about 24 hours, but there is no appreciable change in the cross-track direction. Based on the new forecast, and accounting for typical forecast errors, there is currently less than a 10 percent chance of tropical-storm-force winds occurring at any location on the Hawaiian Islands, and tropical storm watches are not required. Cool water temperatures appear to be contributing to Kiko's current weakening. Moderate southwesterly vertical shear is forecast to develop over Kiko in about 12-18 hours, and that, along with a very dry surrounding environment, should lead to even quicker weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA consensus aids, and shows Kiko falling below hurricane intensity on Monday. The shear appears to peak in about 48 hours (as much as 30-35 kt), so if Kiko can survive that period, it's possible that the storm may weaken more slowly in the latter part of the foreast, especially with sea surface temperatures along its path expected to warm to about 27 degrees Celsius by day 3. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. While the risk of direct impacts on the islands appears to be decreasing, interests there should continue to monitor Kiko's progress and the latest forecast. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui today. These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.1N 145.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 19.0N 147.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 20.2N 149.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 21.4N 151.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 22.6N 154.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 23.7N 156.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 24.6N 159.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 26.6N 163.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 28.3N 166.6W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg