000
WTPA42 PHFO 301435
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number   9
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Wed Jul 30 2025
 
While initially appearing a little more organized on satellite 
infrared imagery, Keli's convection has become more fragmented 
during the past few hours.  Subjective Dvorak estimates range from 
T2.0/30 kt to T3.0/45 kt and the initial intensity is still held at 
35 kt to represent a blend of these estimates.  First-light visible 
satellite data should hopefully reveal more useful information about 
the state of the low-level circulation.

Keli is moving rapidly westward at about 18 kt.  A combination of 
the ridging to the north and Iona to the southeast continue to the 
be the major steering features. The track guidance is closely 
clustered, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged to show a 
slightly faster forward motion.  Strong vertical wind shear, dry 
mid-level humdities, and marginal sea surface temperatures will all 
contribute to Keli's weakening and dissipation during the next day 
or so.  While the official intensity forecast still maintains 
dissipation at 36 h, numerical models suggest this could occur even 
sooner.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 13.8N 155.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 14.2N 158.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 14.9N 161.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci