427 
WTPA42 PHFO 290233
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number   3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

Satellite imagery shows that Keli is producing a small area of deep 
convection near and just west of the estimated center position.  
There is little evidence of convective banding features, although 
there are some curved cloud lines noted over the eastern portion 
of the system on visible imagery.  Overall, the cloud pattern is 
rather disorganized with the storm experiencing easterly shear. 
The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt, which is a 
little above the subjective Dvorak classifications and close to the 
objective AIDT and DRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS.  Keli is a small 
tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward 
about 30 n mi from the center.
 
The storm is moving westward, with a motion estimate of around 
280/10 kt. Keli is expected to continue on a generally westward 
track for the next few days while it remains on the south 
side of a narrow mid-level ridge.  Most of the track models have 
shifted north and are faster than in the previous advisory, and the 
official forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Slight additional strengthening is possible during the next day or 
so while Keli moves over relatively warm waters.  However the 
unfavorable dynamical influence of the low-level circulation and 
upper-level outflow of nearby Hurricane Iona should result in a 
weakening trend in around 36 hours.  The global models show the 
system weakening into a trough in a few days.  Therefore, Keli could 
dissipate sooner than shown in this official forecast.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 12.3N 145.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 12.4N 147.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 12.8N 150.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 13.2N 153.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 13.2N 156.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  31/1200Z 13.1N 159.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 13.0N 162.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch