000 WTPA42 PHFO 282034 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 2 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 28 2025 ASCAT data from around 1830 Z showed a small area of tropical-storm-force winds just north of the center of the system. Based on that data, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical storm Keli with maximum winds of about 35 kt. Although the winds are estimated to be higher than earlier this morning, satellite images indicate that the deep convection has generally decreased during the past few hours. Keli is a very compact storm with its associated cloud field extending only about 90 n mi across. The storm is moving westward at about 9 kt. Keli is expected to continue westward, following Iona, during the next few days as it remains on the south side of a narrow mid-level ridge. The latest track models have trended a little to the north and are faster this cycle, and the official forecast has been nudged in those directions. The environmental conditions could favor a little more strengthening during the next day or so while the storm is over relatively warm water, embedded in a moist air mass, and in generally moderate shear conditions. By the middle of the week, however, Iona's outflow will likely impinge on the cyclone. These unfavorable upper-level winds and stable air should end the opportunity for strengthening and cause weakening. Most of the models show Keli dissipating in about 2 days, except for the GFS which hangs on to the cyclone for about 3 days. Based on the latest guidance, the official forecast has moved up dissipation by 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 12.1N 144.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 12.1N 146.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 12.1N 148.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 12.3N 151.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 12.3N 153.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 31/0600Z 12.2N 156.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 11.9N 159.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi