657 WTNT45 KNHC 100256 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 Jerry remains a disheveled tropical storm this evening. Most of the deep convection is displaced to the southeast of the low-level circulation, which continues to run out ahead due to continued northwesterly vertical wind shear. Air Force reconnaissance observations indicate a highly asymmetric wind field, with the peak 850 mb flight level winds of 56 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and very little wind on the western side of the circulation. The flight level winds support lowering the initial intensity to 50 kt this advisory. The surface pressure has been rising as well, with the latest dropsonde data supporting a minimum value of 1005 mb. Jerry appears to finally be moving northwestward now, estimated at 315/15 kt. The track reasoning remains about the same as this afternoon, as Jerry's track should gradually bend more poleward as it moves along the western side of a subtropical ridge. On the forecast track, Jerry is making its closest approach to the Leeward Islands currently, and its asymmetric wind field means that the majority of the stronger winds will stay east of the island chain. Early next week, a faster eastward or east-northeastward motion is forecast in the mid-latitude westerlies. Jerry is expected to pass east of Bermuda in a few days, and given its expected eastward asymmetry, significant impacts still remain unlikely there. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the prior one, and is a rough blend between the slower and further west HCCA guidance and the faster and further east Google DeepMind Mean (GDMI). The tropical storm is struggling mightily against the unfavorable northwesterly vertical winds shear, and its current poor structure also does not bode well for future short-term intensification. After the storm passes the northern Leeward Islands, the vertical wind shear does decrease to 10-15 knots, but given the current structure, it may take some time for the system to recover. Nonetheless, gradual intensification is shown beginning in 36 hours, though the intensity forecast is lower than the previous advisory. Shear increases towards the end of the forecast and sea-surface temperatures decrease as Jerry recurves into the mid-latitude westerlies, and some weakening is shown again in 120 h. This remains a low confidence intensity forecast, and on the high side of the overall guidance envelope. The most significant hazard expected from Jerry over the next few days is heavy rainfall, even after Jerry passes to the north due to its current structure with most of the significant weather to the south and east of the tropical cyclone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and are possible in the watch area this evening through Friday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban areas and in steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 18.2N 61.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 19.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 24.5N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 27.1N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 29.5N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 31.3N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 31.8N 57.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 32.5N 51.7W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin