000
WTNT45 KNHC 242049
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Jerry no longer looks like either a tropical or a subtropical
cyclone, since it lacks deep convection within a couple of hundred
miles of the center.  This is likely due to a combination of strong
shear and drier air.  The advisory intensity of 45 kt is based on
SFMR-observed surface winds from earlier Hurricane Hunter
observations.  Another Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to
investigate Jerry in a few hours, and given the lack of convection,
will likely find a weaker cyclone.  The numerical guidance indicates
that strong shear and increasingly drier air will affect Jerry over
the next few days.  Therefore, additional weakening is likely, and
the system will probably become a remnant low in 72 hours or less,
and completely dissipate by the end of the period. This is also
shown by the global models.

Jerry has moved quite slowly today, and the estimated initial
motion is just east of northward, or 010/5 kt.  Jerry should pass
through a weakness in the subtropical ridge tonight.  A broad
mid-latitude trough to the north of the cyclone should soon cause
the system to turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward
speed.  Later in the period, the cyclone should turn south of east
while moving around the northeastern periphery of a subtropical
ridge.  The official track forecast is close to the previous one,
and leans toward the corrected consensus model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by early
Wednesday.  Large swells are also expected to affect the coast
of Bermuda during the next few days.  These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 31.1N  69.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 31.9N  67.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 32.9N  65.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 33.7N  62.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 34.4N  60.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 34.5N  56.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/1800Z 33.0N  54.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch