000
WTNT45 KNHC 240238
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Surface and flight-level data from Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft investigating Jerry this evening indicate that
Jerry's maximum sustained winds are holding steady at 55 kt.  The
measured minimum central pressure of 991 mb is also unchanged.
Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory remains at 55 kt.

Jerry is currently moving within a rather harsh environment produced
by a high amplitude mid- to upper-level trough situated between the
cyclone and the eastern seaboard of the United States.  The
statistical-dynamical Decay SHIPS from both the GFS and ECMWF show
the moderate westerly shear and the inhibiting thermodynamic
environment persisting through the entire forecast.  Therefore,
gradual weakening is forecast.  The NHC forecast is basically an
update of the previous advisory and is based on the NOAA HFIP HCCA
intensity consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 350/6 kt.  Jerry
will continue moving within a large break in the subtropical
ridge during the next 12 hours or so, and then turn northeastward
within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by the
aforementioned trough.  Around mid-period, Jerry should move
east-northeastward within the deep-layer mid-latitude zonal flow,
then a little to the south of east in the peripheral flow of the
subtropical high anchored to the southwest of the cyclone.  The
official forecast is a little to the south of the previous one
beyond day 3, and lies between the TVCN simple consensus and the
GFS and ECMWF global models.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late
Tuesday.  Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of
Bermuda during the next few days.  These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 29.2N  68.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 30.1N  68.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 31.2N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 32.4N  65.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 33.3N  62.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 34.9N  56.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 35.0N  52.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 33.9N  49.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts