000
WTNT45 KNHC 232032
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

The low-level center of Jerry became fully exposed to the west of
the convection earlier today.  Later, however, new convection formed
near or just north of the center.  The storm continues to be
affected by strong westerly shear associated with a sharp
upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic.  The current
intensity estimate remains 55 kt, which is consistent with data
from an earlier ASCAT overpass.  The dynamical guidance shows only
a brief relaxation of the shear over the next several days, and the
ambient air mass becomes quite dry in 3 to 5 days.  Therefore, slow
but steady weakening is forecast.  This is close to the latest
simple and corrected intensity model consensus predictions.

Jerry has slowed its forward speed today and the motion is now just
5 kt toward the north-northwest.  The tropical cyclone should
continue to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge
tonight, and then turn toward the north and northeast under the
influence of a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the northeast
U.S. coast.  In 2 to 4 days, Jerry is expected to move just north of
east while embedded in nearly zonal flow.  By the end of the
forecast period, some of the models now show a slightly south of
east motion as the cyclone moves along the northeast periphery of a
subtropical anticyclone.  The official track forecast is slower than
the previous one, especially during the latter part of the period.
This is fairly close to the latest corrected consensus guidance,
HCCA.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late
Tuesday.  Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of
Bermuda during the next few days.  These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 28.4N  68.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 29.6N  68.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 30.9N  68.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 32.1N  66.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 33.3N  64.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 35.0N  58.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 36.0N  53.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 35.0N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch