000
WTNT45 KNHC 221443
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Jerry is not well organized on satellite images, with a
ragged-looking CDO and limited banding features over the eastern
semicircle.  Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate a slight fall in central pressure but the maximum winds
remain near 55 kt.  The storm is under the influence of westerly
shear, and the numerical guidance does not indicated that this
shear will relax during the forecast period.  Therefore, only slight
strengthening is allowed for in the official forecast.  This is a
little above most of the model guidance.

Jerry continues to move north-northwestward, or 340/9 kt, through a
weakness in the subtropical ridge.  A mid-tropospheric trough
moving off the northeast U.S. coast in a couple of days should
cause the cyclone to turn north-northeastward to northeastward
with some acceleration later in the forecast period.  The official
track forecast is close to the previous one and is also similar to
the corrected consensus model guidance.


Key Messages:

1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday.
It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on
Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.
A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 25.7N  66.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 26.9N  67.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 28.2N  67.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 29.5N  67.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 31.0N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 35.0N  63.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 40.0N  54.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 45.0N  45.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch