000
WTNT45 KNHC 200246
TCDAT5

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigating Jerry this evening
found that the hurricane has strengthened.  Based on the 700 mb
flight-level winds from the aircraft, the current intensity is
estimated to be about 90 kt.  It should be noted that this is
substantially higher than the intensity estimates provided from
satellite data, and underscores the value of aerial reconnaissance
of tropical cyclones.  An expected increase in vertical shear in a
day or so is expected to cause a weakening trend to commence in 12
to 24 hours, however, Jerry should remain a hurricane throughout the
forecast period.  This NHC intensity forecast is higher than the
previous one mainly due to the higher initial wind speed, and is
near or a little above the model consensus.

Jerry remains on track and continues to move west-northwestward, or
295/14 kt.  Over the next couple of days, the hurricane should
continue this general motion with some slowing of forward speed as
it moves along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge.
Thereafter, Jerry is likely to turn to the northwest, then
north-northwest, and north as it moves through a weakness in the
ridge.  The track prediction models are in good agreement on this
scenario, and the official forecast is quite close to the previous
one.  This is also very similar to the NOAA corrected consensus
model, or HCCA, track.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are
possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 18.0N  57.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 18.8N  59.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 20.0N  62.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 21.2N  64.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 22.6N  66.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 25.7N  68.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 29.0N  67.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 35.0N  63.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch