000
WTNT45 KNHC 190851
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

A fortuitous 0531 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass indicated that
Jerry's inner core has significantly become better organized this
morning.  The image revealed a nearly enclosed banding eye feature
with the curved band wrapping around the east portion of the
cyclone.  Based on the much improved cloud pattern and a blend of
the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, the
initial intensity is increased to 60 kt for this advisory.

Jerry is expected to strengthen further in the short term and become
a hurricane later today.  Afterward, the statistical-dynamical
intensity models show some moderate northwesterly shear impinging on
the northern half of the cyclone, which should arrest the early
period intensification.  Beyond the 48 hour period, a majority of
the large-scale models indicate increasing westerly vertical shear
as Jerry moves northwest of an upper anti-cyclone situated to
the north of Hispaniola.  Therefore, a weakening trend is expected
through the remaining portion of the forecast.  The NHC forecast is
slightly below the previous advisory after the 48 hour period, but
above the HFIP HCCA and IVCN consensus models, and as well as the
HWRF.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/14
kt.  There are no significant changes to the forecast track
philosophy.  The cyclone is forecast to be steered by the
southeasterly flow generated by a subtropical ridge to the northeast
of Jerry through the 48 hour period.  Around day 3, Jerry is likely
to turn northwest to north-northwest, in response to a growing
weakness in the aforementioned mid-tropospheric ridge along 70-75W
longitude.  The official track forecast is based on a blend of the
various consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to
the northern Leeward Islands Friday.  Although the core of Jerry is
currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm-
force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical
storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 16.0N  53.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 16.8N  55.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 17.8N  57.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 18.9N  60.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 20.1N  63.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 22.9N  68.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 26.0N  70.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 29.5N  68.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts