000
WTNT45 KNHC 290239
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Dorian has intensified, and San Juan radar data show
that the eye is becoming better defined.  Based on SFMR-observed
surface wind observations from the aircraft, the intensity is
increased to 75 kt.  Dorian should remain in an environment of low
shear, within a moistening mid-level air mass, and over SSTs near 29
deg C for the next several days.  This should allow for Dorian to
intensify into a major hurricane.  The official intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest DSHIPS model
output.

The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 320/11 kt.
Dorian should continue to move northwestward toward a weakness in
the subtropical ridge over the next couple of days.  Later in the
forecast period, a ridge builds over the western Atlantic.  This
evolution of the steering pattern should cause Dorian to turn
west-northwestward and head for the Florida peninsula.  The actual
track of the hurricane in 3 to 5 days will depend on how much the
western Atlantic ridge builds during that time frame.  This is, of
course, subject to uncertainty.  The official track forecast is very
similar to the previous one, and close to the latest simple and
corrected dynamical model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later
this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and
northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it
is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur.  Residents
in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place
and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center.

2. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas,
Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this
week and into early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 19.7N  66.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 21.0N  67.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 22.9N  68.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 24.5N  69.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 25.7N  71.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 27.0N  75.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 27.8N  79.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 28.4N  81.8W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch