000
WTNT45 KNHC 121442
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

Strong southwesterly shear has caused the center of Nadine to become
well removed from the deep convection this morning. Although Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates were T3.0 (45 kt) at 1200 UTC, the
center has become further removed from the convection since that
time, and the initial wind speed has been reduced to 40 kt for this
advisory.  The strong southwesterly shear is expected to persist
over Nadine through the weekend, which should result in steady
weakening and dissipation of the system by Sunday, if not sooner.

Nadine took a northwestward jog overnight, but now appears to have
resumed a west-northwestward heading at about 7 kt.  As the storm
weakens and becomes a shallower system it should turn westward and
accelerate within the low-level trade wind flow. The more northward
initial position has required a northward adjustment in the NHC
track forecast, but the new forecast again takes Nadine westward
until dissipation occurs.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 16.0N  36.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 16.1N  37.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 16.3N  40.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 16.5N  43.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown