000
WTNT45 KNHC 111446
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

Nadine is strongly sheared and the low-level center of the
tropical storm is now completely exposed, nearly 50 n mi to the
southwest of the nearest deep convection. Satellite intensity
estimates have decreased since last night, so the intensity has
been lowered to 50 kt. This value is still on the high side of the
available intensity estimates, but Nadine's intensity has generally
been near the top of the intensity estimates for the past few days.

Steady weakening is still anticipated because the shear is forecast
by all models to increase further during the next day or two. By
72 h, if not sooner, all of the dynamical models forecast that
Nadine will have lost its deep convection and degenerated into a
trough of low pressure. No significant changes were made to the NHC
intensity forecast.

Nadine is still moving northwestward at 7 kt.  Since Nadine's
surface circulation has become completely exposed and the vortex is
likely becoming very shallow, a quicker turn toward the
west-northwest and west is now shown in the official track forecast.
The track forecast has therefore been adjusted toward the southwest
at most forecast times, but is still close to HCCA and TVCN through
the short forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 14.1N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 14.8N  34.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 15.5N  36.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 15.9N  38.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 16.2N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky