000
WTNT45 KNHC 102038
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018
500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

The exposed low-level center of Nadine is now peeking out from
beneath its upper cloud canopy. The initial intensity has been held
at 55 kt out of respect for earlier ASCAT data, but it is possible
that some weakening has occurred since this morning. Strong westerly
wind shear will likely prevent Nadine from becoming any better
organized going forward, so the official intensity forecast now
calls for steady weakening for the next 2 days. All of the dynamical
models indicate that Nadine will degenerate into a trough of low
pressure within the next 72 h, and the NHC forecast now shows
dissipation occuring by that point.

Nadine is moving steadily northwestward with an initial motion of
315/7 kt.  As long as Nadine remains a tropical cyclone, it should
stay on a similar heading, and the models are in generally good
agreement on its track.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a
little to the southwest, and is generally close to the TVCX and HCCA
consensus aids at all times.  From 48 h onward, the cyclone or its
remnant trough will likely be entirely separated from its convection
and turn westward in low-level easterly flow.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 13.1N  32.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 13.8N  32.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 14.8N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 15.7N  35.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 16.2N  36.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky